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Discount data shows that, unlike some brands, Lululemon Black Friday discounts are real

1 month ago by Jon Marino in Consumer

If you're getting Lululemon gear for someone else for the holidays, run right out and buy it this morning. 

If you're shopping for you - well, you can probably hold off a few more weeks. Here's why: 

Discount data for Lululemon ($NASDAQ:LULU) reveals a very clear pattern, and it follows a pretty clear supply and demand curve. 

In 2018 from November 25, until December 23, discounts at Lululemon plunged steadily from around 15%, to less than 5%, two days before Christmas. The 15% discount offered as of November 25 was also the best deal on Lululemon gear all year - until after the holidays, when discounts rose to more than 16%.

In 2018 from November 25, until December 23, discounts at Lululemon plunged steadily from around 15%, to less than 5%, two days before Christmas.

The trend suggests what the stock market has dictated over the last five years: that Lululemon yoga pants are so popular, the brand barely even needs to throw in a holiday discount on top of the logo cherished by so many of its dedicated customers. It's a big difference for a popular brand, compared to one like Barney's, which is slashing price tags as it looks to clear off the shelves after its Chapter 11 filing. 

If this trend repeats itself it means that: A. We may have already seen 'peak deal' for yoga pants from Lululemon, and: B. It's still time to buy, at least if you're looking to get them under the proverbial tree this holiday season.

This year (the far right of the chart), by October 31, discounts at Lululemon hit more than 16.5%, only to fall at last tally to a little over 12%; representing a decline in deals of more than 25%. In other words, we've possibly seen "peak yoga pants sales" until after the holidays, so if you must have it for a gift, run out and cop a pair today. And, if you can stretch your yoga pants a few more weeks, you'll do well to head back to the malls as soon as gifts have been swapped. 

Because, face it, chances are, you're going to need to return something at the mall anyway - might as well get the best yoga pants sale of 2019, while you're at it. 

About the Data: 

Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

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Jon Marino

Jon Marino is Thinknum's finance editor, covering the impacts of alternative data on public companies and investors. Prior to joining Thinknum, Jon worked in the ...

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