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Where Bed Bath & Beyond could close 40 stores (and open 15) this year

7 months ago by James Mattone in Features, Markets

Bed Bath & Beyond ($NASDAQ:BBBY), the home-goods store that also owns Buy Buy Baby and the Christmas Tree Shops, announced that it would close 40 stores, but open 15 new locations, in 2019. This comes on the heels of warnings to investors that a same-store sales decrease of between 5 and 6 percent along with a net loss of 18 stores last quarter is incoming.

The closures will almost certainly target under-performing locations. Bed, Bath & Beyond has yet to announce where those locations will be, but by using some proximity data analysis, as we did when J.C. Penney was closing locations nationwide — we can get an idea of where the company may close up shop.

We currently track 1,928 Bed Bath & Beyond locations, including its aforementioned sub-brands.

Stores in close proximity

We call this first metric the "Mattress Firm effect"; when a retailer has multiple stores open within a short drive of one another for too small of a market, it can be a sore spot within a portfolio.

Focusing solely on Bed Bath & Beyond's main store locations, a few Buy Buy Baby's and other properties snuck into the data due to overlap. In other words, Bed Bath & Beyond fits two, or in some cases three, different types of stores within one shopping complex or mall:

Street

City

State

Country

Nearest Bed Bath & Beyond (Miles)

Nearest Store Street #1

Nearest Store City #1

8882 170 Street, Suite 2554

Edmonton

AB

Canada

0.0000822

2049, 8882 170 Street

Edmonton

2049, 8882 170 Street

Edmonton

AB

Canada

0.0000822

8882 170 Street, Suite 2554

Edmonton

850 Third Avenue

Brooklyn

NY

United States

0.0006401

850 Third Avenue

Brooklyn

850 Third Avenue

Brooklyn

NY

United States

0.0006401

850 Third Avenue

Brooklyn

850 Third Avenue

Brooklyn

NY

United States

0.0006401

850 Third Avenue

Brooklyn

23871 Eureka Road

Taylor

MI

United States

0.0021852

23869 Eureka Road

Taylor

23869 Eureka Road

Taylor

MI

United States

0.0021852

23871 Eureka Road

Taylor

2750 North Greenwich Court

Wichita

KS

United States

0.0032583

2756 North Greenwich Court

Wichita

2756 North Greenwich Court

Wichita

KS

United States

0.0032583

2750 North Greenwich Court

Wichita

Outside of the closest nearest store — or even second — the third closest one can reveal a bundle of locations in a concentrated market, or help us break through this issue of false flagging a store in close proximity when it's just in the same mall. After sifting through the data, the outer limits of the New York Metropolitan Area became a clear winner (or loser) in proximity.

Street

City

State

Third Nearest Store Distance (Miles)

Nearest Store Street #3

Nearest Store City #3

545 Route 46 West

Totowa

NJ

0.589

11 Taft Road

Totowa

545 Route 46

Totowa

NJ

0.743

11 Taft Road

Totowa

465 Route 46 West

Totowa

NJ

1.194

1720 US Route 46

Woodland Park

167 Old Country Road

Carle Place

NY

1.271

950 Merchants Concourse

Westbury

34 East Ridgewood Avenue

Paramus

NJ

1.411

145 East State Road 4, Suite #1

Paramus

1932 Broadway

New York

NY

1.415

410 East 61st Street and 1st Avenue

New York

11 Taft Road

Totowa

NJ

1.42

465 Route 46 West

Totowa

11 Taft Road

Totowa

NJ

1.42

465 Route 46 West

Totowa

Paramus

NJ

1.456

300 Ikea Drive

Paramus

1720 US Route 46

Woodland Park

NJ

1.46

545 Route 46 West

Totowa

300 Ikea Drive

Paramus

NJ

1.604

300 Ikea Drive

Paramus

145 East State Road 4, Suite #1

Paramus

NJ

1.604

300 Ikea Drive

Paramus

300 Ikea Drive

Paramus

NJ

1.604

300 Ikea Drive

Paramus

895 East Gate Boulevard

Garden City

NY

1.617

530 Jericho Turnpike

Mineola

392 Route 10 West

East Hanover

NJ

1.629

530 West Mount Pleasant Avenue

Livingston

34 East Ridgewood Avenue

Paramus

NJ

1.728

145 East State Road 4, Suite #1

Paramus

530 West Mount Pleasant Avenue

Livingston

NJ

1.755

180 Route 10 West

East Hanover

620 Sixth Ave between 18th and 19th Street

New York

NY

1.901

270 Greenwich St btw Warren & Murray St

New York

1419 North Kingsbury Street

Chicago

IL

1.917

2838 North Broadway

Chicago

530 North State Street

Chicago

IL

1.997

1800 North Clybourn Avenue

Chicago

1800 North Clybourn Avenue

Chicago

IL

1.997

530 North State Street

Chicago

Population density heat map

Here is the problem with assuming the New York metro area has too many Bed Bath & Beyond stores: this area is also the most population-dense place in America. A heatmap that breaks down the number of stores per 1,000 people in a county and core-based statistical area makes this abundantly clear, as well as shows us where those oversaturated locations really are.

The core-based statistical areas with the most stores per capita are mostly rural locations out west: Breckenridge, Colorado, Walla Walla, Washington, and Moscow, Idaho all only have one store, but don't have many people. The most interesting densely populated region is the Cape Cod area of Massachusetts. This is likely due to the number of Christmas Tree Shops, but there are still a good number of regular stores for how many people live out on the Cape. Then again, the area has plenty of seasonal residents, so this analysis should be taken with a grain of (sea) salt.

And, in looking at the New York metro area, it does seem that it has plenty of Bed Bath & Beyond stores; it's in the second level of heat map density, which also holds true for the Orlando, Florida area.

By county, Fredericksburg County, Virginia sticks out on top, but may be a false positive because it only has one store concentrated in a small area. Then again, there is a second Bed Bath & Beyond right outside county limits, which might be too much for the 28,360 people who live in the county.

Several North New Jersey counties — Sussex and Morrix namely — also show a surprising amount of density despite its population.

Competitor analysis: J.C. Penney vs. Bed Bath & Beyond

Because it offers a variety of home goods, Bed Bath & Beyond is locked into the Amazon ($NASDAQ:AMZN), Walmart ($NYSE:WMT), and Target ($NYSE:TGT) war by proxy. Being in that crossfire is deadly, as seen with big box retailers such as Sears and J.C. Penney.

The latter, however, is still kicking, but has closed several stores in recent years. By seeing where they closed stores and comparing them to Bed Bath & Beyond's portfolio, we may have an idea of what markets are on a decline and where it might be plausible for Bed Bath & Beyond to pull out.

Closed Store

Street

City

State

Nearest Bed Bath & Beyond (Miles)

Nearest Store Street #1

Nearest Store City #1

JCPenney

3000 E HIGHLAND DR # 516

JONESBORO

AR

0.0001

3000 East Highland Drive

Jonesboro

JCPenney

1982 W GRAND RIVER AVE # 500

OKEMOS

MI

0.0005

1982 West Grand River Avenue

Okemos

JCPenney

1200 10TH AVE S # 11

GREAT FALLS

MT

0.0056

1200 10th Avenue South

Great Falls

JCPenney

850 HARTFORD TPKE # C

WATERFORD

CT

0.0073

850 Hartford Turnpike

Waterford

JCPenney

439 WASHINGTON RD

WASHINGTON

PA

0.008

437 Washington Road

Washington

JCPenney

3849 S DELSEA DR # 400

VINELAND

NJ

0.0092

3849 South Delsea Drive

Vineland

JCPenney

3459 PRINCETON RD

HAMILTON

OH

0.0132

3451 Princeton Road

Hamilton

JCPenney

7490 N BLACKSTONE AVE

FRESNO

CA

0.0136

7458 North Blackstone Avenue

Fresno

JCPenney

2540 SYCAMORE RD

DEKALB

IL

0.017

2530 Sycamore Road

DeKalb

JCPenney

3601 S 2700 W

SALT LAKE CITY

UT

0.0191

3595 South Constitution Boulevard

West Valley City

JCPenney

3601 CONSTITUTION BLVD

SALT LAKE CITY

UT

0.0191

3595 South Constitution Boulevard

West Valley City

JCPenney

6100 GRAND AVE

GURNEE

IL

0.0195

6132 Grand Avenue

Gurnee

JCPenney

3800 S LOUISE AVE

SIOUX FALLS

SD

0.021

3800 South Louise Avenue, Suite 2

Sioux Falls

JCPenney

6200 20TH ST

VERO BEACH

FL

0.0212

6150 20th Street

Vero Beach

JCPenney

8348 TAMARACK VLG

ST PAUL

MN

0.0271

8250 Tamarack Village

Woodbury

Here, the NY metro area is represented by only two stores in the top 15. There are still plenty of Bed Bath & Beyond locations within a mile of a closed J.C. Penney outside of this list, with some notable locations with recent closings being the Midway Mall in Elyria, Ohio, and the Smith Haven Mall on Long Island, New York.

As Bed Bath & Beyond just had their Q4 earnings call a few days ago, we'll have to wait and see where it will close (and open) locations across America. But for now, the alternative data given to us by its own store locations, and the locations of J.C. Penney, give some troubling signs for the New York metro area.

Join the businesses who have begun to edge out competitors by scouring the web for alternative data.

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James Mattone

James is the Associate Editor at Thinknum Media, mainly covering video games, food, and tech news, but not afraid to head into Sephora or beauty brands if need be...

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