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Back on their Brexit - and other data for Goldman Sachs' earnings

1 month ago by Jon Marino in Markets

Goldman Sachs is back on their Brexit, hiring fewer investment bankers - and recruiting more programmers as it continues its fight to become a digital consumer bank, on top of everything else it's doing on Wall Street. 

The bank missed its Q3 earnings estimates October 15, in part thanks to weak investment banking revenue that slid 15%. 

Pretty much all Wall Street is back on their Brexit - but Goldman's reductions in job postings from their 2018 peak (457) to near-current-day (163) is staggering. Thinknum Alternative Data can be used to track companies' job postings in any nation, and the only other substantial Goldman hub that trimmed job postings in 2019 is Hong Kong. 

It shouldn't be a shock to many that investment banking job postings are declining. The turbulent markets in 2019, combined with the fact they have to follow a 2018 that generated record M&A announcments, have put a damper on deals. That goes to directly banks' revenue - but Goldman is Wall Street's perennial M&A powerhouse.

Accordingly, job postings are down 51%, according to data. Wells Fargo analysts wrote, in a Sept. 30 research note, that "lower 3Q19 estimates for [Goldman Sachs] reflect a reduction in revenue projections for investment banking (9% lower than prior estimate)," and most banks dependent on dealmakers had better hope their FICC teams showed up in Q3, instead. 

Finally, nevermind what the Wall Street Journal said (for the record: "Marcus has lost $1.3 billion since launching in 2016"), Goldman doesn't look to be giving up on consumer banking anytime soon. Between its partnership with Apple earlier this year, and its United Capital deal, the bank looks increasingly committed to picking up more clients that would be with other bulge bracket banks and advisors. And if Citigroup can court consumers via app, Goldman isn't just going to let it have the market all to itself. 

Accordingly, perhaps, Goldman Sachs job postings have risen more than 70% since Q3 kicked off.  

About the Data: 

Thinknum tracks companies using information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

Further Reading: 

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Jon Marino

Jon Marino is Thinknum's finance editor, covering the impacts of alternative data on public companies and investors. Prior to joining Thinknum, Jon worked in the ...

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