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Tapestry alternative data isn't painting a pretty picture

5 months ago by Jon Marino in Earnings, Retail

Tapestry ($NYSE:TPR), the high-end conglomerate of boots, handbags and other fashion staples, has been in a near-freefall for close to a year on markets, and alternative data trends aren't painting a pretty picture as the retailer heads into earnings. 

The company will report earnings August 15 and analysts tracked by Zacks Investment Research are looking for EPS $0.60 per share. However, shoppers looking for discounts are finding better deals right now - which our first chart tracks, specifically for 

Bargains there are up around 2019 highs - although Coach cut discounts in the middle of Q2, meaning that (for a little while at least) it was making more on sales - whether or not that is sufficient to match quarterly expectations, is a totally different story. 

Coach is just one division of the entire organization - and all of Tapestry saw job postings increased by more than 5% over the quarter, in a year where hiring appears to be rising. 

The conglomerate began its transition in 2017, rebranding from the 'Coach' moniker and into its current form - although the market wasn't pumped about the new identity. Thanks to deals to build out a fashionable portfolio, in the years leading up to the Tapestry transition, the company tacked on brands including Stuart Weitzman and Kate Spade. But around the time the rebrand began, is where trouble started. 

And, that is also when Tapestry began losing critical social engagement - as is tracked in the chart above, which follows Coach's Facebook ($NASDAQ:FB) Talking About Count, or how often people interact with a brand on the social network. Coach (as it was then known) bought out Kate Spade in 2017 in a deal worth about $2.4 billion - and then, the brand was rocked by the suicide of founder Kate Spade the following year.

Mid-2018 proved to be the beginning of the Tapestry's troubles - since August 2018, the company's shares are down nearly 50%. Continued challenges may force another shift in strategy, soon. 

About the Data: 

Thinknum tracks companies using information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

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Jon Marino

Jon Marino is Thinknum's finance editor, covering the impacts of alternative data on public companies and investors. Prior to joining Thinknum, Jon worked in the ...

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