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Gap's future without Old Navy could still be very bright

3 weeks ago by Jon Marino in Earnings

Gap is going up a size this holiday season, according to the alternative data. It's an all-too-common phenomenon (at least, to this author) that too commonly accompanies a gluttonous holiday season. But, for Gap ($NYSE:GPS) it's getting bigger in all the right places.

And, hopefully at the right time for investors, who have seen shares hammered for 35% losses in 2019 - analysts tracked by Zacks Investment Research are looking for EPS of $0.51 when Gap announces results Thursday November 21. 

Our first chart tracks Gap's job postings, stretching across all of its brands, including Old Navy, athleisure brand Athleta, the Gap flagship brand, Intermix, and Banana Republic. And, it's up - big-time: nearly 50% from 2019 lows. What's more, is that job postings are up 8% year-over-year, a positive signal for all Gap businesses. 

But, soon, this chart could look a bit different - because if and when low-cost, high-appeal Gap brand Old Navy spins out into its own independent entity, Gap's going to lose both a big chunk of staffers and a big chunk of its job postings. 

Our next chart shows that Gap has been doubling down on its athleisure brand, Athleta, which is a less-pricey competitor to some white-hot brands in the space, like Lululemon. 

Athleta is a growing brand among Gap's portfolio (Gap, itself, on the other hand, is shuttering some locations) and since the second half of 2019 kicked off, its footprint expansion accelerated as it added locations. 

We can also track Athleta - and all Gap brands - through our map, the last image we'll share. You can pinch and zoom through the map, as well as use the 'Show Timeline' button at bottom-right to view expansion on a quarterly or annual basis. 

About the Data: 

Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

Further Reading: 

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Jon Marino

Jon Marino is Thinknum's finance editor, covering the impacts of alternative data on public companies and investors. Prior to joining Thinknum, Jon worked in the ...

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