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Fossil Group could be running out of time - here's the data

2 weeks ago by Matthew Broberg-Moffitt in Big Tech

The turbulence of the Coronavirus Pandemic in the global market can't be overstated. For stable, healthy retail companies this can be daunting. For those struggling to maintain a presence and viability, it's potentially catastrophic. 

Fossil Group ($NASDAQ:FOSL), for instance, has experienced a number of recent public setbacks. Namely, it suffered a -25% share plunge on November 7, 2019, and a second by over -20% on February 26, 2020, after quarterly results reflected a net sales loss of 11.4% and 10%, respectively. It has lost 60% of its stock market shares within the past year.

Fossil Group sold its intellectual property for developing smartwatch technology, as well as a portion of its development team, to Google ($NASDAQ:GOOG) on January 17, 2019, for $40 million.

A look at Fossil's job listings over time shows a company with little interest in drawing in new talent.

Similarly, we can see an employee count flagging over a very short period of time. On February 21, 2020, Fossil Group announced an undisclosed number of layoffs at its Richardson headquarters.

When we take their inventory and discounted items into consideration, a fire sale at the start of the year becomes evident. Particularly the jump in deeply discounted inventory on January 27th, 2020.

Perhaps the dwindling power of retail department stores has played a role in Fossil Group's continued loss of ground. While the company has stand-alone retailers, the following list shows the largest suppliers of Fossil products are JCPenney, Kohl's, and Macy's. These companies are experiencing individual setbacks as well.

Distributor

Stores

JCPenney

1,847

Kohl's

1,166

Macy's

668

HISTOIRE D OR

358

Belk

315

Buckle

294

Dillards

291

Fossil

148

CHRIST JUWELIERE & UHRMACHER SEIT 1863 GMBH

146

LOUIS PION

133

CLEOR

121

Nordstrom

120

Fossil Outlet

107

GALERIA KAUFHOF GMBH

103

MARC ORIAN

102

JULIEN D ORCEL

97

KARSTADT WARENHAUS GMBH

79

ORO PIU’ 1995 S.R.L.

67

Bon-Ton

64

VICOM S.P.A. - OROFINO

61

These factors taken in a larger view leads us to wonder if Fossil Group will survive the coming troubles, or if it will fall victim to the troubles that have plagued it recently. With a look at the number of independent locations, it becomes difficult to see what will remain of the Fossil Group.

About the Data:

Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

Further Reading: 

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Matthew Broberg-Moffitt

Matthew Broberg-Moffitt is Thinknum's Contributing Writer. He also writes children's books and is a Sensitivity/Expert Reader.

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