Thinknum Alternative Data
Request Demo
Thinknum Login
Questions answered using Thinknum

Fundamental Investors

How many cars has Carmax sold this week compared to the same week last year?

How is foot traffic at Chipotle changing YoY?

What are the industrial companies that are growing and hiring the most?

Quantitative Analysts

How are the number of Twitter followers a leading indicator for company performance?

How are the number of LinkedIn employees a leading indicator for company performance?

Business Inteligence

Which private companies are getting their products picked up by major retailers?

Which private healthcare companies are hiring the most?

Which tech startups are getting the largest increase in mobile app downloads?

Join the investment community and start your week with market insights seen through the lens of alternative web data.

Dunkin' strikes back in the coffee scale wars with Starbucks - but it has a lot of catching up to do

4 months ago by Jon Marino in

For the last 12 months, the strength and trajectory of Starbucks ($NYSE:SBUX) has been bulletproof - so strong, in fact, that objectively one of the most poorly-conceived Democratic presidential campaigns of the Internet era from its founder couldn't begin to slow the Seattle coffee titan's roll. Now, Dunkin ($NASDAQ:DNKN), the 'Biggie' in this East Coast-West Coast coffee war, is firing back as both companies prepare for earnings Thursday July 25. 

Dunkin is heading into earnings with higher expectations in part thanks to Wedbush Securities analysts who bumped up both their price target and rating for the Massachusetts coffee chain. Shares are up about 11% over the last 12 months, although Dunkin's performance in 2019 has been especially strong. Our first chart checks on Dunkin's scale - store growth rose about 2.25% this quarter, or a little more than 9,600 stores - a small step as it remains far behind Starbucks, with a little more than 30,000 locations, according to our data (not shown). 

And while Starbucks maintains a massive size advantage, it's social scale is a little bit lacking. Despite gaining an astounding 77% on public markets over the last 12 months, Starbucks is seeing likes as tracked by Facebook ($NASDAQ:FB) begin to decline beginning January 2018. It may not matter, the company has nearly 37 million likes, anyway. 

The next chart tracks Dunkin's social engagement, for the same metric. The good news is that Dunkin's trajectory maintains upward - the bad news is that it remains roughly 34 million likes off Starbucks' pace, which, to provide perspective, would require all of the states of Pennsylvania and New York liking Dunkin in one shot to get it caught up. Analysts may like Dunkin right now, and it may be growing - but Starbucks' scale to the Massachusetts coffee chain give it an enormous advantage right now. 

Analysts tracked by Zacks Investment Research are looking for EPS of $0.82 for Dunkin. As for Starbucks, it will report earnings July 25 - and there, a similar grouping of analysts is looking for EPS of $0.73. 

About the Data: 

Thinknum tracks companies using information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

Further Reading: 

Join the businesses who have begun to edge out competitors by scouring the web for alternative data.

Request demo
Ready for a personalized tour?

Jon Marino

Jon Marino is Thinknum's finance editor, covering the impacts of alternative data on public companies and investors. Prior to joining Thinknum, Jon worked in the ...

Request a demo

We would love to show you how Thinknum will benefit your investment process. To get started, fill out the form and we'll contact you shortly to schedule your demo.

Get Thinknum Media in your inbox

Start the day off with our Weekly Digest.