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Dollar Tree growth closes in on all-time highs, alternative data shows

2 weeks ago by Jon Marino in Earnings

Dollar Tree ($NASDAQ:DLTR) is starting to look like a redwood

So far this year Dollar Tree shares have gained about 23%; and analysts are expecting EPS of $1.12 when it announces earnings Tuesday, November 26. 

Last time we checked in on Dollar Tree, the nationwide retailer was growing, and shrinking Family Dollar, which it bought in 2015. And, the trend has held. At Dollar Tree, store count kept rising in 2019 in the third quarter - and, has grown more than 7% since the year began. This outpaces 2018's growth. 

Our second chart tracks a compelling trend - even as Dollar Tree grows, its job postings are growing in number at a much greater pace than stores are increasing in number. The retailer saw 57% job posting growth across 2019, and coming in a year where a growing number of retailers are looking to bring on seasonal staff to shore up for Black Friday this week. For many, job posting time has peaked and begun to decline - and, the data reflects this trend for Dollar Tree. 

Our final image helps to track growth - or shrinkage - over time. Because as Dollar Tree has expanded its footprint post-acquisition, Family Dollar continues to be on the receiving end of an Amazonification of its brand. Family Dollar has seen its footprint shrink more than 11% over the last 12 months. 

Finally, we can track much of the time Family Dollar and Dollar Tree have been co-owned, via the map above. Using the key on the top-right; you can sort between stores and highlight which regions each has added (or cut) stores in the most over the last several years. 

About the Data: 

Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales, and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue, and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

Further Reading: 

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Jon Marino

Jon Marino is Thinknum's finance editor, covering the impacts of alternative data on public companies and investors. Prior to joining Thinknum, Jon worked in the ...

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