The mattress industry has had its share of rough nights over the last few years, from bankruptcies to disappointing IPOs. And while COVID-19 hasn’t made things any easier, it might also show us who will sleep easy and who could soon join Luca Brasi, sleeping in a different kind of way.

Casper, the bed-in-a-box disruptor whose IPO failed to impress last year, may be well-positioned to bounce back from a painful 67% share price decline to kick off 2020.

Even with the current economic downturn, Casper ($CASPERSLEEP) hasn’t slowed hiring with around 143 positions still open, up 39% year-over-year. The company’s 2019 performance report claims it is “well-positioned to capture market share if demand shifts online.” And with online sales increasing at an unprecedented rate, it seems Casper may be prepping for the coming storm. 

On the other hand, companies heavily relying on in-store sales probaly aren’t feeling so well-rested. Mattress Firm’s ($NASDAQ:MRFM) job postings plummeted from 735 in mid-March to as low as 33 by recent counts. The embattled retailer is temporarily shuttering showrooms and became one of the first major companies to notify landlords it wouldn’t be paying April rent. It has also furloughed employees and suspended PTO. Sleep Number, another brick-and-mortar player, is also slashing job postings. 

But when brick-and-mortar players try and make the digital transition, nothing is guaranteed. Tempur-Sealy’s ($NYSE:TPX) own bed-in-a-box offering “Cocoon” has proven that. The brand's Facebook ($NASDAQ:FB) ‘Talking About’ counts show that slapping a digital bow on a mattress doesn’t necessarily translate to brand recognition - most of the brands listed above, have far stronger engagement through the social network. 

For an industry that’s grown oversaturated with both e-commerce and retail companies, brick-and-mortar alone may prove too inflexible to endure current economic pressures - which would play to Casper's strengths. And when quarantine ends and wine-stained mattresses line the streets from weeks of home-office happy hours, their replacements may well be coming from an internet near you. 

About the Data:

Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

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