Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY), the home-goods store that also owns Buy Buy Baby and the Christmas Tree Shops, announced that it would close 40 stores, but open 15 new locations, in 2019. This comes on the heels of warnings to investors that a same-store sales decrease of between 5 and 6 percent along with a net loss of 18 stores last quarter is incoming.
The closures will almost certainly target under-performing locations. Bed, Bath & Beyond has yet to announce where those locations will be, but by using some proximity data analysis, as we did when J.C. Penney was closing locations nationwide — we can get an idea of where the company may close up shop.
We currently track 1,928 Bed Bath & Beyond locations, including its aforementioned sub-brands.
Stores in close proximity
We call this first metric the "Mattress Firm effect"; when a retailer has multiple stores open within a short drive of one another for too small of a market, it can be a sore spot within a portfolio.
Focusing solely on Bed Bath & Beyond's main store locations, a few Buy Buy Baby's and other properties snuck into the data due to overlap. In other words, Bed Bath & Beyond fits two, or in some cases three, different types of stores within one shopping complex or mall:
|
Street |
City |
State |
Country |
Nearest Bed Bath & Beyond (Miles) |
Nearest Store Street #1 |
Nearest Store City #1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8882 170 Street, Suite 2554 |
Edmonton |
AB |
Canada |
0.0000822 |
2049, 8882 170 Street |
Edmonton |
|
2049, 8882 170 Street |
Edmonton |
AB |
Canada |
0.0000822 |
8882 170 Street, Suite 2554 |
Edmonton |
|
850 Third Avenue |
Brooklyn |
NY |
United States |
0.0006401 |
850 Third Avenue |
Brooklyn |
|
850 Third Avenue |
Brooklyn |
NY |
United States |
0.0006401 |
850 Third Avenue |
Brooklyn |
|
850 Third Avenue |
Brooklyn |
NY |
United States |
0.0006401 |
850 Third Avenue |
Brooklyn |
|
23871 Eureka Road |
Taylor |
MI |
United States |
0.0021852 |
23869 Eureka Road |
Taylor |
|
23869 Eureka Road |
Taylor |
MI |
United States |
0.0021852 |
23871 Eureka Road |
Taylor |
|
2750 North Greenwich Court |
Wichita |
KS |
United States |
0.0032583 |
2756 North Greenwich Court |
Wichita |
|
2756 North Greenwich Court |
Wichita |
KS |
United States |
0.0032583 |
2750 North Greenwich Court |
Wichita |
Outside of the closest nearest store — or even second — the third closest one can reveal a bundle of locations in a concentrated market, or help us break through this issue of false flagging a store in close proximity when it's just in the same mall. After sifting through the data, the outer limits of the New York Metropolitan Area became a clear winner (or loser) in proximity.
|
Street |
City |
State |
Third Nearest Store Distance (Miles) |
Nearest Store Street #3 |
Nearest Store City #3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
545 Route 46 West |
Totowa |
NJ |
0.589 |
11 Taft Road |
Totowa |
|
545 Route 46 |
Totowa |
NJ |
0.743 |
11 Taft Road |
Totowa |
|
465 Route 46 West |
Totowa |
NJ |
1.194 |
1720 US Route 46 |
Woodland Park |
|
167 Old Country Road |
Carle Place |
NY |
1.271 |
950 Merchants Concourse |
Westbury |
|
34 East Ridgewood Avenue |
Paramus |
NJ |
1.411 |
145 East State Road 4, Suite #1 |
Paramus |
|
1932 Broadway |
New York |
NY |
1.415 |
410 East 61st Street and 1st Avenue |
New York |
|
11 Taft Road |
Totowa |
NJ |
1.42 |
465 Route 46 West |
Totowa |
|
11 Taft Road |
Totowa |
NJ |
1.42 |
465 Route 46 West |
Totowa |
|
Paramus |
NJ |
1.456 |
300 Ikea Drive |
Paramus |
|
|
1720 US Route 46 |
Woodland Park |
NJ |
1.46 |
545 Route 46 West |
Totowa |
|
300 Ikea Drive |
Paramus |
NJ |
1.604 |
300 Ikea Drive |
Paramus |
|
145 East State Road 4, Suite #1 |
Paramus |
NJ |
1.604 |
300 Ikea Drive |
Paramus |
|
300 Ikea Drive |
Paramus |
NJ |
1.604 |
300 Ikea Drive |
Paramus |
|
895 East Gate Boulevard |
Garden City |
NY |
1.617 |
530 Jericho Turnpike |
Mineola |
|
392 Route 10 West |
East Hanover |
NJ |
1.629 |
530 West Mount Pleasant Avenue |
Livingston |
|
34 East Ridgewood Avenue |
Paramus |
NJ |
1.728 |
145 East State Road 4, Suite #1 |
Paramus |
|
530 West Mount Pleasant Avenue |
Livingston |
NJ |
1.755 |
180 Route 10 West |
East Hanover |
|
620 Sixth Ave between 18th and 19th Street |
New York |
NY |
1.901 |
270 Greenwich St btw Warren & Murray St |
New York |
|
1419 North Kingsbury Street |
Chicago |
IL |
1.917 |
2838 North Broadway |
Chicago |
|
530 North State Street |
Chicago |
IL |
1.997 |
1800 North Clybourn Avenue |
Chicago |
|
1800 North Clybourn Avenue |
Chicago |
IL |
1.997 |
530 North State Street |
Chicago |
Population density heat map
Here is the problem with assuming the New York metro area has too many Bed Bath & Beyond stores: this area is also the most population-dense place in America. A heatmap that breaks down the number of stores per 1,000 people in a county and core-based statistical area makes this abundantly clear, as well as shows us where those oversaturated locations really are.
The core-based statistical areas with the most stores per capita are mostly rural locations out west: Breckenridge, Colorado, Walla Walla, Washington, and Moscow, Idaho all only have one store, but don't have many people. The most interesting densely populated region is the Cape Cod area of Massachusetts. This is likely due to the number of Christmas Tree Shops, but there are still a good number of regular stores for how many people live out on the Cape. Then again, the area has plenty of seasonal residents, so this analysis should be taken with a grain of (sea) salt.
And, in looking at the New York metro area, it does seem that it has plenty of Bed Bath & Beyond stores; it's in the second level of heat map density, which also holds true for the Orlando, Florida area.
By county, Fredericksburg County, Virginia sticks out on top, but may be a false positive because it only has one store concentrated in a small area. Then again, there is a second Bed Bath & Beyond right outside county limits, which might be too much for the 28,360 people who live in the county.
Several North New Jersey counties — Sussex and Morrix namely — also show a surprising amount of density despite its population.
Competitor analysis: J.C. Penney vs. Bed Bath & Beyond
Because it offers a variety of home goods, Bed Bath & Beyond is locked into the Amazon ($AMZN), Walmart ($WMT), and Target ($TGT) war by proxy. Being in that crossfire is deadly, as seen with big box retailers such as Sears and J.C. Penney.
The latter, however, is still kicking, but has closed several stores in recent years. By seeing where they closed stores and comparing them to Bed Bath & Beyond's portfolio, we may have an idea of what markets are on a decline and where it might be plausible for Bed Bath & Beyond to pull out.
|
Closed Store |
Street |
City |
State |
Nearest Bed Bath & Beyond (Miles) |
Nearest Store Street #1 |
Nearest Store City #1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JCPenney |
3000 E HIGHLAND DR # 516 |
JONESBORO |
AR |
0.0001 |
3000 East Highland Drive |
Jonesboro |
|
JCPenney |
1982 W GRAND RIVER AVE # 500 |
OKEMOS |
MI |
0.0005 |
1982 West Grand River Avenue |
Okemos |
|
JCPenney |
1200 10TH AVE S # 11 |
GREAT FALLS |
MT |
0.0056 |
1200 10th Avenue South |
Great Falls |
|
JCPenney |
850 HARTFORD TPKE # C |
WATERFORD |
CT |
0.0073 |
850 Hartford Turnpike |
Waterford |
|
JCPenney |
439 WASHINGTON RD |
WASHINGTON |
PA |
0.008 |
437 Washington Road |
Washington |
|
JCPenney |
3849 S DELSEA DR # 400 |
VINELAND |
NJ |
0.0092 |
3849 South Delsea Drive |
Vineland |
|
JCPenney |
3459 PRINCETON RD |
HAMILTON |
OH |
0.0132 |
3451 Princeton Road |
Hamilton |
|
JCPenney |
7490 N BLACKSTONE AVE |
FRESNO |
CA |
0.0136 |
7458 North Blackstone Avenue |
Fresno |
|
JCPenney |
2540 SYCAMORE RD |
DEKALB |
IL |
0.017 |
2530 Sycamore Road |
DeKalb |
|
JCPenney |
3601 S 2700 W |
SALT LAKE CITY |
UT |
0.0191 |
3595 South Constitution Boulevard |
West Valley City |
|
JCPenney |
3601 CONSTITUTION BLVD |
SALT LAKE CITY |
UT |
0.0191 |
3595 South Constitution Boulevard |
West Valley City |
|
JCPenney |
6100 GRAND AVE |
GURNEE |
IL |
0.0195 |
6132 Grand Avenue |
Gurnee |
|
JCPenney |
3800 S LOUISE AVE |
SIOUX FALLS |
SD |
0.021 |
3800 South Louise Avenue, Suite 2 |
Sioux Falls |
|
JCPenney |
6200 20TH ST |
VERO BEACH |
FL |
0.0212 |
6150 20th Street |
Vero Beach |
|
JCPenney |
8348 TAMARACK VLG |
ST PAUL |
MN |
0.0271 |
8250 Tamarack Village |
Woodbury |
Here, the NY metro area is represented by only two stores in the top 15. There are still plenty of Bed Bath & Beyond locations within a mile of a closed J.C. Penney outside of this list, with some notable locations with recent closings being the Midway Mall in Elyria, Ohio, and the Smith Haven Mall on Long Island, New York.
As Bed Bath & Beyond just had their Q4 earnings call a few days ago, we'll have to wait and see where it will close (and open) locations across America. But for now, the alternative data given to us by its own store locations, and the locations of J.C. Penney, give some troubling signs for the New York metro area.
